Milk production keeps climbing

April milk production in the top 23 dairy states was up 1.7 percent over last year, according to the USDA NASS Milk Production report released yesterday. This rise in milk production surprised many industry observers. The combination of higher cull cow prices and low milk prices was expected to result in a larger drop in cow numbers and, perhaps, a drop in milk output.

This was the second month this year that milk production was above year-earlier levels. March milk output in the top 23 states was up 0.9 percent.

In the top states, there were 155,000 fewer cows on farms in April than a year ago. However, there were 3,000 more cows in those states than in March.

Nationally, there were 186,000 fewer cows (-2 percent) on farms when compared to a year ago. However, there has been a 14,000-cow gain in the U.S. dairy herd since last December . . . 9.096 million head versus 9.082 million.

Milk per cow is the big story. Across the nation, April milk output per cow was up 3.5 percent from last year and averaged more than 60 pounds per day for the first time in history.

After being down for a number of months, milk production in California was up very slightly in April. Wisconsin milk production shot up 6.2 percent, mostly on a big, 5.8 percent jump in the amount of milk produced per cow. There were 5,000 more cows (+0.4 percent) on Wisconsin dairy farms.

Milk production in New York (+1.7 percent), Idaho (+3.3), and Pennsylvania (+2.8) was up. Both Texas (-2.2) and New Mexico (-1.7) were down.

2009 milk production statistics reveal few changes

USDA recently released the 2009 averages for state-by-state milk production, cow numbers, and milk per cow. A detailed report, complete with charts and tables, can be found the in the March 10 issue on page 169. Here are a few findings from USDA's report:

Cow numbers dipped slightly compared to the previous year’s 9.315 million which represented the highest inventory since 1996. Despite the drop, average cow numbers were still high with the nation’s 9.201 million cows running above average totals for 2001 to 2007. It should be stressed these are yearly averages. Estimated cow numbers in December 2009 stood at 9.082 million. Among the top 10 dairy states, those that reduced cow numbers were: California, down, 2.6 percent; New York, down 1.1 percent; Pennsylvania, down 0.7 percent; and New Mexico, down 3.8 percent.

Growth in milk per cow slowed for the fifth consecutive year, dropping to 0.9 percent compared to between 1.0 to 3.2 percent gains in the previous four years. Over the past decade, Arizona, Colorado, and Washington all took turns holding the top spot for milk per cow. This year, New Mexico has the nation’s highest-producing cows, breaking the 24,000-pound barrier for the first time.

Meanwhile, there was only one change in the top 10 milk production states with Michigan overtaking New Mexico. Milk production in the top production state, California, was down 4.1 percent, while production in the nation's second leading state, Wisconsin, was up 3.1 percent.

U.S. dairy farmers produced 618 pounds of milk for every American citizen. On a per capita basis, Idaho led all states producing 7,860 pounds of milk for every state citizen. The next three on the list were: Wisconsin, 4,463 pounds per resident; Vermont, 3,971 pounds per resident; and New Mexico, 3,933 per resident. A full-color map including all 50 states can be found in the March 10 issue.
MilkProd-02-19-2010-1.pdf

December milk down 0.8 percent

December milk was down 0.8 percent compared to a year earlier for the top 23 dairy states, reports NASS in its January 19, 2010, Milk Production report. When looking at the entire country, milk production was down 1.o percent for the last quarter (October to December) and down 0.9 percent for December.

For the top 23 dairy states, total milk cows were down 206,000 head compared to last December. However, when compared to just a month earlier, milk cows are steady. Cows still in herds are more productive, up 29 pounds compared to a year earlier, for a 1,758-pound monthly average per cow.

On a national basis, preliminary numbers suggest milk production was down 0.4 percent for the past year. Total milk stood at 189,259 million pounds for 2009. The estimated 9.2 million cows in the national herd averaged 20,572 pounds per cow this past year. A finalized report will be released next month.

Western states again led the states that were down in production this past December. The largest drops in production included:
• Colorado, down 11.1 percent
• Arizona, down 10.9 percent
• Missouri, down 8.0 percent
• Kansas, down 5.1 percent
• California, down 4.6 percent
• New Mexico, down 3.2 percent
• Utah, down 2.7 percent

The Midwestern states again led the gainers:
• Wisconsin, up 4.3 percent
• Iowa, up 3.6 percent
• Minnesota, up 3.2 percent
• Washington, up 1.9 percent
• Indiana, up 1.8 percent
• Ohio, up 1.2 percent
• Michigan, up 2.4 percent


MilkProd-01-19-2010.pdf

Milk production staying strong

Despite the long stretch of low milk prices and feed costs that are climbing again, milk production and cow numbers have not changed as much over the past six months as many would have expected. An old, hard-hearted saying is that “low milk prices are the cure for low milk prices.” This means that, when things get tough on dairy farms, more people quit milking or, at least, cull more heavily or feed less, reducing milk per cow. That has not been happening during the current downturn . . . so far.

May milk production actually was up 0.2 percent over a year ago in the top 23 milk states. Milk production in both April and March were up 0.1 over a year ago.
Milk per cow was up 0.5 percent during May in the top 23 states which was enough to offset a 0.3 percent (25,000 head) drop in cows compared to last May. There were 10,000 fewer cows in those states in May than there were in April.

Nationally, there were 11,000 fewer cows in May than April and 43,000 fewer cows than last May. Most of the CWT cows in the current herd retirement round will go out in June.
Of the top five dairy states, all were down in milk production except Wisconsin which was up 1.9 percent from last year. California was down 1.9 percent; New York, -0.8; Idaho, -1.4; and Pennsylvania, -0.8.

Big gainers were Kansas (+6.8 percent milk) with 4.3 percent (5,000) more cows and Texas (+6.3) with 18,000 or 4.4 percent more cows. Arizona was down 6.2 percent in milk, mostly because of a 5 percent drop in milk per cow compared to last year.

Cow numbers highest in over a decade

Cow numbers are way up. Since 2004, there are 305,000 additional cows on U.S. dairy farms putting total cow numbers at 9.315 million. The growth has been gradual, ranging from 2005’s 0.3 percent and topping out with this year’s 1.4 percent. To put the current cow population in perspective, the last time we had over 9.315 million cows was 1996.

Overall, total milk production was up to 190 billion pounds which is a 2.3 percent increase from the previous year. That 2.3 percent increase is right in the middle of the 2.1, 2.8, and 3.5 percent gains in national milk production during the prior three years.

Growth in milk per cow slowed for the fourth consecutive year, dropping to 1.4 percent compared to 1.6 to 3.2 percent in the previous three years. The order of the top 10 states changed slightly: Texas (+14 percent rose from eighth to seventh; New Mexico (+7.9 percent) rose one spot to eighth, while Michigan (+1.8 percent) fell from seventh to ninth.

For a full report on 2008 milk production, check out our March 10 issue.