Milk production staying strong

Despite the long stretch of low milk prices and feed costs that are climbing again, milk production and cow numbers have not changed as much over the past six months as many would have expected. An old, hard-hearted saying is that “low milk prices are the cure for low milk prices.” This means that, when things get tough on dairy farms, more people quit milking or, at least, cull more heavily or feed less, reducing milk per cow. That has not been happening during the current downturn . . . so far.

May milk production actually was up 0.2 percent over a year ago in the top 23 milk states. Milk production in both April and March were up 0.1 over a year ago.
Milk per cow was up 0.5 percent during May in the top 23 states which was enough to offset a 0.3 percent (25,000 head) drop in cows compared to last May. There were 10,000 fewer cows in those states in May than there were in April.

Nationally, there were 11,000 fewer cows in May than April and 43,000 fewer cows than last May. Most of the CWT cows in the current herd retirement round will go out in June.
Of the top five dairy states, all were down in milk production except Wisconsin which was up 1.9 percent from last year. California was down 1.9 percent; New York, -0.8; Idaho, -1.4; and Pennsylvania, -0.8.

Big gainers were Kansas (+6.8 percent milk) with 4.3 percent (5,000) more cows and Texas (+6.3) with 18,000 or 4.4 percent more cows. Arizona was down 6.2 percent in milk, mostly because of a 5 percent drop in milk per cow compared to last year.