USDA provides first forecasts for 2010

Early looks at what’s ahead on both the income and expense sides of the business were provided by yesterday’s USDA publication, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates-WASDE-470. It’s a 40-pager, but the first five pages have enough meat and potatoes for most of us.

Milk production is expected to decline in 2010 because of the problems our industry is experiencing this year. Cow numbers will go down with only slight gains in milk per cow. The All-Milk price forecast is $14.70 to $15.70 per hundredweight, compared to an expected $11.85 to $12.35 this year.

Cattle prices are expected to be higher in 2010 due to tighter supplies and improved demand both here and abroad.

USDA projects feed grain and oilseed prices will remain relatively high in the year ahead. The agency estimates the price of this year’s corn crop will be around $4.10 a bushel, plus or minus about 40 cents. That’s a far cry from the $7.50 corn we saw last year, but it still is well above traditional corn prices.

Soybean prices, USDA projects, could be in the $9.45-a-bushel area, plus or minus $1. Soybean meal prices are expected to be around $290 a ton, plus or minus $30.

Corn planting has been slow. As of last Friday, 48 percent of corn had been planted, compared to a five-year average of 71. Beans were only 14 percent in, compared to typical 25 percent on that date. Corn planting is behind the most in the eastern Corn Belt. Continued wet weather could shift more acres to soybeans as happened last year, further tightening supplies of corn.