USDA bumps up milk price forecast a bit

Cheese and butter price forecasts for 2010 are little changed from last month in USDA's World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates. But the Class III price estimate for 2010 was raised about a dime from last month due to higher forecast whey prices. The forecast for the Class III midpoint was $15.25 ($14.90 to $15.60) compared to $15.15 ($14.75 to $15.55) a month earlier. However, the Class IV price forecast was lowered reflecting weaker nonfat dry milk prices.

The all milk price is forecast at between $16.20 and $16.90 for 2010 (midpoint $16.55) compared to a midpoint of $16.60 in the January estimate.

The milk production forecasts for 2010 were raised by half a billion pounds to 188.9 billion, up from 188.4 last month. Milk production was forecast higher for 2010 based on the higher-than-expected January 1 dairy replacement heifer estimate. Herds are not expected to decline as rapidly as forecast last month, boosting milk production.

Dairy exports on a skim-solids basis for 2010 are raised, reflecting higher sales of cheese and nonfat dry milk. Import forecasts are lowered for 2010. Fat and skim-solids ending stocks are estimated higher for 2009 and stocks for 2010 are raised in the face of higher production.

ATTENTION COW JUDGING CONTEST PARTICIPANTS: Due to the poor print job of the Holstein class on the cover of our January 25 issue, we have reproduced the Holstein class on our web site. We apologize for the difficulty many have had in getting a good look at the cows in the Holstein class. We have made changes to ensure better print jobs in the future.